Fiscal 2019 Deficit Through April

The chart below tracks the monthly deficit or surplus of the U.S. government for the current fiscal year, in comparison to the prior year. The deficit through April (the first seven month of the fiscal year) was $531 billion. This is $145 billion more than the first seven months of Fiscal 2018.

According to a recent CBO projection, the U.S. deficit will be near $900 billion by September 30. This is expected to be $100 billion more than the Fiscal 2018 deficit, but less than the initial estimate of $1 trillion. In order to meet this projection, the deficit for the next five months will need to be nearly the same as May through September of 2018.

How likely do you think the federal deficit for the next five months will be equal to the deficit for the same period last year?